The most recent data from freight, ports, retail, trade finance, and big box retail indicates that the U.S. economy is cooling in some areas and heating up in others. Although volumes are low, rates are climbing. Consumers are spending money, but it is not as much as before. Even the importers are paying the highest tariffs ever. In this news roundup, we review the critical factors that will affect the first quarter of 2026.
Freight Volumes Drop to Post-Crisis Levels as Rates Climb
Cass Information Systems said that its shipments index dropped 7.1% in January compared to the same month last year and 14.7% over the past two years. The reading is now at levels that were last seen in 2009. Seasonally adjusted volumes slipped 2% from December. Some less-than-truckload carriers estimated storms shaved roughly 3 percentage points off shipments.
January marked the end of 13 straight months of year-over-year linehaul gains after two years of declines. Carriers are now saying contract rates will increase by low to mid-single digits in 2026. However, some analysts think that stricter rules for drivers may push prices even higher.
Southern California Imports Return to Long-Term Trend
For six of the last seven months, the number of TEUs entering Southern California has been lower than the same month the previous year. On the surface, that looks like contraction. However, over a longer horizon, it appears to be a normalization. From 2010 to 2020, imports steadily increased. Then the pandemic surge, labor problems on both coasts, and inconsistent tariff policies caused five years of big swings. The quarterly volumes are now closer to the historical trend line.
Routing changes are a major factor in the turbulence. From the first quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024, inland point intermodal (IPI) volumes rose by 84%. During the same time period, total imports rose by 55%. The IPI share reached a high of over 28% in the first quarter of 2025, but by the fourth quarter of 2025, it had dropped to 25.3%.
Retail Sales Stall, GDP Estimates Trimmed
Retail sales in December were flat, missing forecasts for a 0.4% gain. November’s 0.6% rise remained unchanged, but October’s drop was changed to 0.2%. Sales went up 2.4% year over year. Core retail sales, which are a direct part of GDP, fell 0.1% after November’s numbers were revised down.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve cut its estimate for GDP growth in the fourth quarter from 4.2% to 3.7%. And savings are thin. The rate dropped to 3.5% in November, well below the pandemic high of 31.8%. In the fourth quarter, wage growth slowed to 0.7%, and for the whole year, it was 3.3%, the lowest since mid-2021. Economists think that tax refunds will help the economy later in the quarter.
Tariff Windfall for the Government, Bond Shortfalls for Importers
In January, tariff collections jumped to $30 billion, and so far this year, they have reached $124 billion, a 304% increase from the same time last year. However, the number of customs bond shortfalls hit an all-time high. In fiscal year 2025, U.S. Customs and Border Protection found 27,479 bond problems — almost $3.6 billion in shortfalls, which is as high as in 2019.
Tariffs of 10% to 25% or more have raised the amount of bonds needed to as much as $450 million. With the Supreme Court ruling, some money could be refunded. However, insurers say it could take longer to get the money back due to all the paperwork.
Walmart Grows But Remains Cautious
Walmart reported $190.7 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter, up 5.6% from the same period last year. The retail giant’s revenue for the year was $713.2 billion, a 4.7% increase. Third-party marketplace and store-based fulfillment helped drive global e-commerce sales up 24%.
In the U.S., net sales rose 4.6% to $129.2 billion, while comparable sales remained about the same. Walmart expects net sales to grow by 3.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2027 and operating income to grow by 6% to 8%. Analysts said the outlook was cautious because of signs such as fewer job openings and more students behind on their loans.
Stable Freight Operations With Zengistics
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