The logistics and supply chain sector is navigating through a dense fog of uncertainty marked by inflationary pressures, geopolitical tension, trade policy whiplash, and persistent rate stagnation. From climbing logistics expenditures to the slow recovery of U.S. trucking, the industry’s pulse is uneven but intense.
Behind the numbers lie strategic shifts that have seen retailers recalibrate their inventory strategies, ports brace for erratic volumes, and carriers calculate their risks. This month’s roundup brings together key updates and insights into the state of the market, signaling where logistics is heading as we move into the second half of 2025.
Recent figures from the Cass Freight Index and the U.S. Producer Price Index point to a cooling freight market. Truck and intermodal rail shipments slipped 0.4% from April to May and dropped 4% year over year against seasonal expectations.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index showed a 0.8% month-over-month decline and a 1.5% slide since February. While year-over-year numbers remain marginally positive, contract and spot rates are losing momentum. The long-distance truckload PPI stayed flat in May, while LTL rates dipped slightly after peaking earlier in the year.
Logistics spending in the U.S. rose to $2.58 trillion in 2024, now representing 8.8% of GDP — an elevated level sustained by supply chain recalibrations and geopolitical disruptions. The CSCMP’s annual report attributes the steepest rise to ocean shipping, which jumped 93.1% due to congestion around the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
In contrast, full truckload spending fell sharply, dropping more than $100 billion from its 2022 high. Private and dedicated fleet spend surged, growing at a 12.3% CAGR over five years. By all measures, 2025 brings no relief: elevated tariffs, uncertain global conditions, and inflationary equipment costs threaten to thin carrier margins, slow fleet turnover, and deepen operational caution across the industry.
A 90-day tariff reprieve between the U.S. and China sparks a short-lived import rally, particularly timed with back-to-school and holiday shopping. April volumes surged to 2.21 million TEUs, then fell sharply in May to 1.91 million. NRF projections for June to August indicate that imports are recovering but remain below 2024 levels.
September and October forecasts point to steep drops of 21.8% and 19.8%, respectively. The early seasonal spike reflects an uncommon convergence in retailer scheduling aimed at beating the tariff clock. If rates don’t soften further, volume erosion and supply chain recalibration will likely intensify in Q4.
Off-price retail continues to thrive while traditional department stores contract. Nordstrom Rack, Macy’s Backstage, and Belk outlets are all expanding, but the fastest growth comes from TJX, Burlington, and Ross, all of which operate thousands of stores and plan to add hundreds more this year.
UBS data shows off-pricers now command 66.6% of the category’s sales and 81% of profits. Their inventory growth, which was 13% in Q1, dwarfs the 1% growth seen at department stores. The business model’s flexibility and pricing advantage drive durable share gains, even as tariffs introduce cost pressures.
Margins remain resilient due to better fixed-cost leverage and higher inventory turns.
President Trump’s announcement of a finalized trade deal with China hasn’t moved the needle on tariffs, which remain locked at a punishing 55%. Retailers and logistics firms warn that the damage is entrenched, with rising consumer prices, tightened margins, and reduced trust in trade stability.
Intermodal volume has already dropped 7.4% year over year, with truckload volumes down 13.37%. Port congestion is resurging due to excess empty containers and reduced outbound sailings. Vietnam and India, beneficiaries of shifting sourcing strategies, are gaining share.
Despite a summer rush tied to the tariff pause, the second half of 2025 may deliver declining volumes and more volatility unless trade clarity returns.
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